The Nintendo Switch 2 isn't yet available on the market, and the console's success is already being questioned. According to an analyst's report, the successor console won't be as successful as its predecessor. Reasons for this are also being cited – and they are undeniable.
After the resounding success of the Nintendo Switch Fans expect exactly the same from the successor. However, analyst Jost Van Dreunen of Aldora doubts that the Nintendo Switch 2 will be as successful – at least at launch, the market expert sees several obstacles that could impact sales. A key feature – and one that fans have requested – is expected to pose a sales problem: backward compatibility.
Nintendo confirmed some time ago that Nintendo Switch games would also be playable on the successor. While this does not apply to all software titles, it will presumably include at least the major releases. The good news for fans could also be bad news for Nintendo. As the analyst explains, the release could be hampered by the lack of (at least so far) high-profile launch titles. While it can be assumed that Nintendo will not repeat the mistake it made with the release of the original Switch and will put together a good lineup this time, the console may revolve around the backward compatibility feature at launch. That is good, but could be a problem, especially given the significantly higher price than the Nintendo Switch as a purchasing argument. Van Dreunen also speaks of "relatively moderate technical improvements" regarding the performance of the Nintendo Switch 2. Whether this actually proves to be true remains to be seen. But the assumption highlights a potential risk of the successor: The Nintendo Switch 2 is more expensive and potentially on par with a PlayStation 4 or Xbox One in terms of performance. While that would ultimately be a significant leap over its predecessor, it wouldn't sufficiently justify a significant price premium. If they then had to forgo top launch titles or wait for them, fans could certainly postpone their purchase decision. Flagship games are now a standard part of a console release, but Nintendo has remained relatively quiet on this matter so far, instead frequently mentioning backward compatibility.
However, it's unlikely that such problems will persist throughout the life cycle of the Nintendo Switch 2. The original console also faced many negative comments upon release – and in the discussions leading up to it. Ultimately, the Japanese gaming company proved all the experts wrong: the Nintendo Switch made history. This was not solely due to the console itself, but also to a clever software strategy that Nintendo has successfully pursued with its in-house characters for decades.
Weak technology, a price increase, and a mediocre launch lineup would quickly be forgotten when Nintendo unleashes the real monsters on the market: a new Super Mario game, another spin-off from the Zelda series, Pokémon and Animal Crossing, and the anticipated entry in the Metroid franchise are sure to significantly boost sales. Nintendo sells its hardware based on its popular gaming brands, not on sheer performance. This is precisely why Nintendo has no need to fear the now technically strong handheld competition from Steam, Asus, or MSI. No matter what other hardware manufacturers do, Nintendo games will not be playable on the more PC-like systems, apart from the use of emulators. Nintendo has built a gigantic niche over decades, which it can now serve with complete peace of mind.
The company plans to reveal more details about Nintendo Switch 2 in the Nintendo Direct: Nintendo Switch 2 presentation, which will be shown on Wednesday, April 2.
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